All across the world, central bankers have been creating asset price bubbles because – wrongly – they have been disregarding asset prices and only been…
Posts by Citadella
Another good figure
Quite often, a figure is worth a thousand words, and I came across a relevant graph again. Earlier, I wrote about that different satisfaction and…
The most important figure
I think that, in terms of the prospects of the global economy, the most important figure is the one I added to the end of…
Plato on politics
Plato said ‘The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men’. Why is this quote still relevant…
IS THIS THE PEAK?
Bitcoin has been going through extraordinary exchange rate fluctuations: a day after it crossed the ambitious 10000-dollar line, it reached 11000 dollars and then, it…
On Past Returns
In the past 50 years, the American share market generated a remarkable annual return* of 9.8%. It is a common belief that the same 50-year…
The death of passive investments
In the next 10-15 years, I believe, that the passive, static investments (e.g. the classic 60-40 share-bond portfolio) will only achieve negative real return. It…
The succes of the Hungarian model
Viktor Orbán says that EU funds are not the reasons why the Hungarian economy is growing, and the Hungarian model is an absolute success. Economists…
FED: MISSION IMPOSSIBLE
The intention of the United States’ central bank to raise the interest rate was unexpected and became a determinative capital market event in the last…
When will Japan be all-in?
Since the Christmas of 1989 Japan struggles with serious problems. The public debt reached a world record level; the stimuli are in a manner of…
What is wrong with the markets?
There is a simple and possible reason for the fall of the markets in the last few months. Sovereign wealth funds started to sell their…
CYCLES
I have been asked plenty of times recently how long will this boom in the Hungarian economy last. If we take a look at the…
The european bond bubble has popped
A remarkably fast rise in yields is taking place in Europe: French 10-year T-bonds had stood at 0.36% as of the middle of April; today…
Bonds, Inflation, Interest Rate Policies
At the end of 2014, beginning of 2015, I believed that a bubble had formed among European bonds that would soon burst, on the model…
THE JAPANESE, THE GREEKS AND THE BONDHOLDERS
It certainly is amazing what the Bank of Japan has been doing. The Central bank’s use of the State Pension Fund as an intermediary helps…
THE RESURRECTION OF EUROPE?
It looks increasingly as if the markets are starting to believe the narrative of lasting European growth. Stronger for longer… European yields have been rising…
The long cycle
One of my friends has commented that he could not have imagined that he would witness such a long-lasting bull market in his lifetime, one…
THE IMPACT OF THE DOLLAR’S STRENGTH
The dollar has strengthened so much – and assuming it stabilizes at this level – that several regions may have to rework their macroeconomic approach…
Commodities
The meteoric rise of commodities during the past decade makes you feel that there is only one way for them: up. Peak oil; exhausted mines;…